Last time I had written about why human beings are attracted always towards the complex items and don’t understand simple concepts like compounding.
One thing which comes to my mind is the fact that compounding works on 2 key parameters….longer periods of activity(of years in case of money) and higher rates (of interest in case money). While the human brain is very good at figuring out things quickly by identifying patterns, it gets completely foxed when complex calculations need to be done.
For the first 4-5 periods of activity, there is no appreciable change if you when you start with small values, because of which it seems that nothing worthwhile is happening. So if you have started with 1 Rupee after 5 years if you only have got 2 rupees you are not able to comprehend how big the number can become. Its only later that the fun starts taking place.
Look at the table below. The IPL cricket season is about to start in India and people in India could relate to this idea. It could be wickets in a game of cricket or holes in a game of golf. We will start with a dollar for every wicket / hole taken in a match and double it for the next one till we take 18 holes in golf or wickets:
| Wicket in cricket / hole in golf | Amount doubled after every wicket/hole |
| 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 |
| 4 | 8 |
| 5 | 16 |
| 6 | 32 |
| 7 | 64 |
| 8 | 128 |
| 9 | 256 |
| 10 | 512 |
| 11 | 1024 |
| 12 | 2048 |
| 13 | 4096 |
| 14 | 8192 |
| 15 | 16384 |
| 16 | 32768 |
| 17 | 65536 |
| 18 | 131072 |
Would you wager a bet with anyone on doubling the amount on each outcome. You wouldn’t if you see how what starts with just a dollar becomes more than One hundred Thirty thousand dollars. As a matter of fact Tony Robbins has a post specifically on this idea.
If you were to take this forward to a 22nd wicket/hole can you comprehend the value – it will be …it will be 2 million (20lakhs)….and by the 30th hole it would have become…Half a billion dollars (or 500 crores).
Warren Buffets actual growth of wealth has been after the age of 60 because of this phenomenon. Its the age of the investments that have enabled the compounding to start playing a role.
Think about it. If you were to ensure that you were to keep money for your child from the time she is born, you will make her a real rich person by the time she is 45-50 without her doing anything….at all.
For those of you who are more visually inclined pls have a look at the chart below
Next time we will take the same example by comprehending different interest rates and show how the different rates can change the graph.
Till next time.
Carpe Diem!!!
ANIMESHJMATHUR 