India crosses France in GDP

Financial Independence, Uncategorized

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

A headline which caught my eye today and a cause for celebration for India and people of Indian origin was this report from the World Economic Forum site.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/10/the-80-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart

The chart on this link gives such a concise view of how the break-up of the $80Trillion world economy looks like.

While US is still the largest economy at $19 trillion, China at $12 trillion, is closing in quite fast and is one of the reasons for the spat between US and China.

What needs to be understood that China has a huge population and even a small change in per capita can change the numbers for China dramatically.

Which brings me to India.  In one of my posts almost 6-7 months back I had written how the Indian economy can grow dramatically because of the things the government of India is doing in terms of Direct Benefits Transfer and for doubling of farm wages.  With India’s large and growing young population even a $100 increase in per person income, from $1700/ person, can cause us to cross Germany, Japan etc. in a matter of years.

One of the BigFive consultants had put out a report of countries in terms of their share of the economy in 2050.  And the top 3 economies had India in it. While we have only $2.6 trillion portion of the global economy we are still the fastest growing large economy.

Which brings me to the crux of this post….

While Warren Buffet is betting on the USA and I am not negating him…. I also do have some indirect exposure to the US market…..

I would think if you really want to grow fast, you need to invest in an economy which has the world’s largest democracy.  Irrespective of which government comes to power, the economy moves on……there might be some slow downs but India has both the brain power and the manpower to surge ahead.   Being a stable democracy there is a rule of law.  So companies do get stuck in legal hassles but things do get resolved

By 2030 we would have the youngest population in the world. That will mean the amount of consumption that can take place in this country will be unsurpassed.  With both men and women entering the workplace either directly or indirectly, the need for workplaces will grow and it will put pressure on our existing infrastructure.  Which means that the government will have to be investing in setting up new cities.  The Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor – being built with Japanese collaboration – is going to sprout more than 10 completely new living and industrial areas.

To transport the population you will need to have airports, roads,  airlines.  To treat such a large population you will need hospitals, medicines etc.  There is no field where growth will not take place at amazing rates.

If you can take ownership of businesses via mutual funds or direct equity investments invest in India.  The growth is just about to begin and if you buy into companies at this time you can ride this growth.  If you want your wealth to grow faster than anywhere else in the world put your money in India.

To your financial independence.

Carpe Diem

How a 15 year old can aspire to be a billionaire

Financial Independence, Uncategorized

Last weekend I was at one of my relatives place.  She has two young kids.  One of them is around 19 years and the younger one might be around 14-15 years of age

I was very glad to notice that they had an interest in making investments at such a young age.  I also loved the idea that their father was actually instilling in them a habit of trying to evaluate different avenues in investing.  This means that in India the efforts of channels like ETNow and  CNBC TV18 & the efforts of the mutual fund industry and stock exchanges like NSE are starting to bear fruit.  If kids and parents start discussing financial products then the future is definitely bright for the Indian middle class.

When they came to know that I write a blog on achieving financial freedom, they thought of asking me for some recommendations on stocks and other investments, which I denied. I prefer not to give advice on any specific type of instruments or stocks, because a) I am not qualified and b) because everyone has a different risk appetite.

Since I like to look at just the basics and compounding and the rule of 72 are simple things that anyone can do at the back of an napkin, I just spent time with them on that.

Using the above I just explained to them without any use of even a calculator how wealthy he could grow.

If the younger son invests today Rs10000/- at the age of 15.  India’s long term growth rate has been about 15% average.  Even the indices therefore will grow at a long term average of 15%.

Therefore if he was to put this 10000/- in a Nifty ETF, it would also grow at an average of 15%.  By the rule of 72 if he divides the number 72 by 15% then he will double the money in about 4.5 years.  For simplicity let’s assume 5 years.  which means every ten years it will grow 4 times. So his investment table, if he keeps invested with this 10000/- would look like below.  Just staying invested without doing any hard work (incidentally staying invested could be the hardest thing) he can convert his Rs10000/- into Rs10million or (Rs 1 crore)

Age Amount@15% Amount@25%
25 40000 100000
35 160000 1000000
45 640000 10000000
55 2560000 100000000
65 10200000 1000000000

The second column is if he looks out for investments which can lead him to compound at close to 25%.  then you see the magic.  The amount converts to Rs1 billion (100 crores).  Look at what happens between the ages of 45 and 65.  At 45 he would have Rs 10 million and at 65 Rs 1 Billion.  Even Warren Buffet’s wealth if you Google at age 65 and now at age 85, he is one of the richest men on earth just because of this phenomenon.

Obviously getting 25% on a consistent basis is not going to be easy, over a long period of time.  But the key is going to be about staying invested.  I hope the young guy can.

If you have any young guy you know, just show him this table of what his 10000 today can do for him over  30-40 years.

Till next time….

Carpe Diem!!!

 

 

How women in India can change the destiny of the country – part 2

Financial Independence, Uncategorized

Continuing where I left last, when more women come into the workforce there is money in more hands.
First this money goes to ensuring that the basic necessities of life are taken care of.

The good thing about basic necessities however is that once they are taken care off, there is not too much more that needs to be done , so once you have had three meals you can’t have one more meal during the day.

Once people have more money than they need to take care of their basic necessities they do 2 things – one they try to save and two they like to move up in life by doing discretionary spending.
When discretionary spending starts to happen the GDP growth starts to multiply. In India from the time the per capita rose from $1000 to $1700 one major trend that is seen – last year the growth of Air Traffic has been faster than the growth in rail traffic. The per capita is expected to in the next 7-8 years hit $3000/-.  That is considered the poverty line in countries like the US& Canada for a family of 5.  But adding $1300 per capita into more than 1 billion people can mean such a huge uplift for India.
Just with the addition of $700 per capita (from $1000) even though the Indian economy does not seem to be doing very well, still you have most Metro airports and all the Planes and flights which I have taken recently completely full. Whether it is low cost Airlines like Indigo and Go air or full service Airlines like Air Vistara or Air India you don’t see empty seats. There is a waiting list for cars and 2 wheelers.  People are wanting to move up in life.  They have aspirations to be better than what their parents were.

So what does this have to do with financial freedom….

If more women come into the workforce they will add to the per capita income. Once they take care of the part of the burden of the basic necessities of the house, then they will end up spending on better education and health of their children and better quality products for themselves.

If you see trends like these and you invest in countries like India, which have a such a young demographic, you can be picking gems which can make you rich many times over.  Invest through SIPs in mutual funds or invest in Emerging Market funds, but systematically go about investing in growth stories and the growth momentum can propel your finances into a different orbit…

Till next time

Keep identifying trends

How women in India can change the destiny of the country

Financial Independence, Uncategorized

Last few days I have had a writer’s block .  Since my last blog, last weekend, I had been thinking on what should be my next topic but it just wasn’t getting structured

And then today I was listening to the podcast at the Tim Ferriss( tim.blog .)  He was interviewing the author Daniel Pink.

There were many Aha moments…but this post is not about that podcast.During the interview Daniel mentioned that one of his professors once told him that sometimes you just need to start writing and things will get figured out.

That suddenly hit a chord with me.  So here we go….

I was reading the Entrepreneur magazine’s India edition and here I saw couple of very interesting facts.  One of them was an article by Nobel prize winner Muhammad Yunus. He is the man behind the concept of micro finance which has empowered so many women .

One of the things he mentioned in the article is that if illiterate and poor women can transform themselves into entrepreneurs imagine what would happen if millions of high school and University graduates are empowered.

This got me thinking. If we discount for about 30% of India’s population to be children and old people, then out of the remaining 1 billion people you have 50% of them as women. What would happen if these 50% women came into the workforce- either as entrepreneurs or as workers, what would happen to the GDP of our country.  About 400-500million more people in the workforce, which is expected to be the youngest workforce by 2030.

Last year I was in Canada during their 150 year celebrations and I realised that its GDP is close to two and a half trillion dollars, while India’s GDP is also close to 2.5 trillion dollars. However Canada’s population is less than the population of one city in India -Delhi NCR, about 3 crores (30million). India’s population is more than 125 crores(more than 1.25 billion).

In the same issue of the Entrepreneur there is another report which says that if women’s participation in the Indian economy goes up the country’s GDP is likely to go up by 60% that is an amazing figure

If only our women believe in themselves and if we can give them a supporting hand there is massive prosperity which can be created in this country.  Right now for a lot of families in India, buying 3 meals is the biggest outgo of money.  Once each family has multiple earners and expenses on food become a minor part of the spend, then families will educate their kids, they will take better care of them.  and people will spend more on non-food items.  These are exciting times if we take our destiny in our own hands.

Capre Diem!!!